Short course in Probabilistic Forecasting
Forecasting may reduce but cannot eliminate inherent uncertainties about the future. One approach to managing this is to estimate remaining uncertainties in a probabilistic fashion and thus arrive at a probabilistic forecast. This estimation can be done using ensemble techniques, statistical post-processing or a combination of these.
The quality of resulting forecasts can be assessed through a process called forecast verification. Verification of probabilistic forecasts uses different techniques than verification of deterministic forecasting. Within the framework of a forecast – decision – response system, effective forecasting requires that attention is given to additional issues such as forecast visualization, communication, decision-making and training.
The present course comprises an introduction to these topics. It is aimed at both practitioners and scientists.
- Introduction to uncertainty, risk and probability
- Techniques for estimating predictive hydrological uncertainty: ensembles and post-processing
- Verification: how good is my (probabilistic) forecast?
- Forecasting applications: (i) storm surge forecasting for the North Sea coast; (ii) fluvial forecasting in Rhine, Meuse and the EFAS system
- Serious game: making forecast sensitive decisions
- Using probabilistic forecasts in operational practice.
Online Course dates
Session 1: Thursday, 2 December 2021, 13:00 – 16:30 CET (Delft time)
Session 2: Monday, 6 December 2021, 13:00 – 16:30
Session 3: Thursday, 9 December 2021, 13:00 – 16:30
The registration fee for this course is € 565, – excluding VAT.
50% discount for lecturers at centers of education.
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START OF THE SESSION
Please check in early to test your audio and video. We will open the session at 12:50 (CET, Delft time), 10 minutes before the start of the session.