Wildfires and adaptive policy and management
It is expected that wildfires in the Netherlands will occur more frequently, may become larger and will also occur simultaneously more often. The likelihood of them occurring is not the same across the whole of the Netherlands and depends on the vegetation growing there, the subsoil and drought conditions in the air and in the soil. In addition, it also depends on how the land is used and whether, for example, human activity might have an impact.
Understandably, a great deal of attention is focused on the wildfire incidents themselves. However, the broader context of risks and the cascade effects of wildfires is important information to take into account in adaptive policy and land management.
Future climate risks and wildfires
The interplay between water availability, drought and the subsoil makes wildfires a complex climate risk. We therefore carried out research for the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) into future climate risks in the Netherlands, specifically in relation to wildfires. One of the conclusions was that combating wildfires will become an increasingly frequent challenge in the future, as fires are set to become larger, last longer and may occur simultaneously. We concluded that the issue is not solely about firefighting, but increasingly about raising awareness, prevention, spatial planning, nature conservation and managing risks before a fire breaks out. To prevent uncontrollable cascade effects, preventative policies are needed alongside crisis response. It is also important to take wildfire risks into account in spatial planning and the protection of critical infrastructure.
Voorbij de risico's - Keuzes voor een klimaatbestendig Nederland (in Dutch Hoofdstuk Natuurbranden)
Crisis response in relation to climate threats
Together with TNO and NIPV, we have carried out research (in Dutch) into scarcity issues in crisis response in relation to climate threats. We examined a scenario involving prolonged drought and heat, combined with multiple simultaneous wildfires. Simultaneous wildfires already occur in the Netherlands. This raises questions such as how to organise the deployment of personnel and equipment, and what happens if these incidents coincide with other climate threats such as drought, heat or water scarcity? This study revealed that it is precisely this combination of drought, heat and multiple wildfires occurring simultaneously that makes the crisis response fundamentally different from that required for many traditional incidents. Specific recommendations for the crisis response also emerged.
Simultaneous occurrence of risks
Wildfires do not occur in isolation. They are linked to drought, water scarcity, heat and the layout of the Netherlands. As climate change progresses, these risks will occur together more frequently. The question is therefore not only how we combat wildfires, but above all how we prevent them from escalating into wider societal crises.
