The use of decision-support models for drought

The results of the study have been published in Elsevier Environmental Science and Policy under the title The role of decision support tools in drought management: Insights from the Netherlands. In addition, the researchers recently wrote an article on the role of hydrological models for the journal Stromingen, published by the Dutch Hydrological Society.

Download the article in Elsevier Environmental Science Policy

Factual information increasingly important during severe droughts

A questionnaire survey of national and regional water authorities reveals that, during severe droughts, water managers are increasingly relying on fact-based tools. These include field measurements, data information systems, consultations with stakeholders, and legislation and regulations. Weather forecasts and expert knowledge also remain of great importance at all stages of drought management.

By contrast, the use of hydrological models is not increasing uniformly. In the early stages of a drought, these models are primarily used as a tool for specialists and play a less visible role in broader decision-making.

Hydrological models often ‘invisible’ in decision-making

Many Dutch hydrological models were originally developed for wet conditions and high water levels. Precisely for this reason, the researchers write, it is important to continue to critically assess the suitability and transparency of these models in the context of drought decision-making.

Although data and information systems are used more intensively during extreme droughts, the use of hydrological models within them often remains hidden. In practice, models are integrated into information systems in around 60 per cent of cases, with users not always being aware of their use. As a result, the uncertainties associated with models also remain largely out of sight in the decision-making process.

Liduin Bos-Burgering, geohydrologist and drought expert

The study shows that, during drought crises, there is a need for greater standardisation and better coordination of information between regions and levels of government. Explicitly and transparently incorporating models – and their uncertainties – into decision-making can contribute to this.

Raising awareness of model use

By raising awareness among policymakers and water managers about which hydrological models are used and what the underlying uncertainties are, it becomes clearer which assumptions underpin decisions. Assumptions thus become visible and open to discussion, and can be consciously taken into account in deliberations. This encourages organisations to assess which models are best suited to answering specific policy questions. .

Models as part of decision-making

The researchers emphasise that models are valuable as part of the decision-making process, Timo Kroon, expert groundwater and water security says;

"Models should shift from being merely technical tools to becoming an integral part of the broader context of information systems. This requires clear communication about uncertainties, collaboration between modellers, water managers and policymakers, and the integration of model information into decision-making processes."

Now that periods of drought are occurring more frequently and their consequences are becoming more severe, it is important to look not only at data and model outputs, but also at the underlying assumptions and uncertainties. By explicitly taking these into account in decision-making, policymakers can make better-informed and more transparent choices for climate-resilient water management. Furthermore, a collaborative approach to the use of data and models, combined with the exchange of information, helps to ensure faster and more consistent action during periods of drought.