International trade increases drought risk in conflict countries
Food security in countries affected by conflict is not only determined by what happens within their borders. New research calculating a composite drought risk shows that international trade plays an important role: it can reduce local drought problems, but also brings new risks.
Taking into account the drought risks of trading partners
The study analysed 23 conflict countries and found that imports are crucial to their food supply. Traditionally, drought risk assessments have focused primarily on domestic agriculture. However, in a globalised world, most countries depend on international trade to guarantee at least part of their food security.
Traditionally, drought risk assessments focus primarily on domestic agriculture. However, in a globalised world, most countries depend on international trade to guarantee at least part of their food security. When the drought risks of trading partners are taken into account, the risk profile of these countries changes significantly—sometimes by as much as 50%. In extreme cases, such as in Lebanon and Libya, up to 80% of the risk comes from outside the country.
Critical trade relationships
A small number of major exporters, including India, Russia, and the United States, dominate these trade flows. A severe drought in these countries can therefore cause a domino effect, affecting several countries at once.
By mapping global trade connections and their drought risks, we expose hidden vulnerabilities, enabling countries to target resources and better prepare against the risks of food shortages caused by remote droughts.
Henrique M.D. Goulart
What can countries do to become resilient?
The researchers propose strategies to increase resilience. Countries with high domestic risk can invest in irrigation and crop rotation or import crops from regions with a lower risk of drought. Countries that depend on risky imports (critical trade relations) should diversify their trading partners.
Research on water, migration, and stability
Deltares is conducting several studies on water, migration, and stability. Water is essential for communities and, like other precious resources, can therefore be a cause of conflict. However, the connecting nature of water also offers opportunities for working towards peace.
This research was conducted by Deltares, in collaboration with Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Universiteit Twente, and the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).
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