The Future of Dutch Agriculture
‘What might the Dutch countryside look like in 2050?’ and ‘How could farming be successfully carried out there?’ These questions are central to the publication *Visions for the Future of Agriculture*. In it, the Office of the Chief Government Architect and Government Advisers (CRa) explores possible directions for the development of agriculture and the countryside. Deltares and Wageningen University & Research have contributed their expertise to the report.
With this report, the Board aims to broaden the debate: from nitrogen, standards and regulations to the quality of the countryside, farmers’ expertise and the conditions necessary to enable change through collaboration. The publication is being released at a time when the nitrogen strategy set out in the parliamentary letter More space for farmers, nature and construction and the Draft Nature Plan are under discussion.
The publication outlines how water management and water consumption have evolved over several generations, and the impact that economies of scale, land consolidation and intensification have had on the water system and the landscape. It also examines how environmental awareness has grown and how nature and environmental policy have influenced the day-to-day operations of agricultural holdings and the organisation of the landscape. Looking to the future, the CRa uses visuals to show what the landscape might look like when the carrying capacity of the natural water and soil system forms the basis.
Deltares has contributed expertise on the challenges facing water and soil and on potential hydrological strategies.
Water quality and nature
The first milestone is just around the corner. As early as 2027, the Water Framework Directive will require results. Looking towards 2030, climate targets, peatland challenges, the protein transition, green-blue infrastructure and the first nature restoration measures will all demand visible progress. The dry summer of 2026 also demonstrates that not everything can be solved through water management alone. Choices will have to be made about how we wish to organise our land whilst making good use of the water and soil systems.
Water and soil are key drivers
According to the CRa, the coming years will mark a turning point – not least for a healthy water and soil system in the Netherlands. We cannot tackle everything at once, but it must become clear which areas can be further optimised and where a different approach to development is needed. Demonstrable improvements are needed in water quality; pressure on vulnerable natural habitats must be reduced, and peat meadow areas must contribute to slowing land subsidence and lowering CO₂ emissions. Working adaptively therefore does not mean waiting to see what happens, but determining in advance when a measure is proving insufficient and when to pursue an alternative course of action.
Sandy areas
In sandy areas, the short-term priorities lie primarily in retaining water for longer, restoring the landscape’s ‘sponge’ function and stream valleys, implementing more extensive drainage around dried-out natural areas, reducing groundwater extraction, minimising the leaching of fertilisers and pesticides, and restoring soil life and landscape features. This is where the objectives for water quality, nature restoration and agricultural transition converge most sharply.
Restore the landscape’s ‘sponge effect’ by reducing drainage and retaining groundwater for longer. Re-wetting in transition areas surrounding dried-out natural habitats is already proving highly effective and represents a clear first step that can be taken in the medium term.
Perry de Louw, drought and groundwater expert at Deltares
Clay and loamy soils
On high-quality clay and sandy loam soils, productive land-based agriculture can continue to play an important role in the longer term. Precisely because these soils are suitable for food production, they deserve protection against fragmentation and ill-considered changes of use. Whilst ‘productive’ does not mean carrying on as before, profitable farming is perfectly possible with new insights and new technologies.
Coastal and clay areas
The issue is becoming more acute in coastal and clay areas: how long can freshwater-dependent crops remain viable as salinisation increases and the availability of freshwater becomes less assured? For areas such as Zeeland, where it is not always possible to supply additional water everywhere, the challenge lies not only in using water more efficiently, but in adopting a different water and cultivation strategy: retaining freshwater when it is available, creating water buffers, and reducing dependence on external supplies.
The transition of the rural landscape is not just about meeting targets. It is also about people’s living environment: about familiarity, craftsmanship, the landscape and future prospects.
Government Adviser on the Physical Environment, Noël van Dooren
A Vision of the Future
The publication profiles six generations of farmers between 1930 and 2080 in the Netherlands. Each of these generations has faced, or is facing, significant changes. This demonstrates that Dutch agriculture has undergone radical changes on numerous occasions. This did not happen without pain or loss, but neither did it happen without entrepreneurship.
Across the Netherlands, farms, research institutions and engaged citizens are working to develop solutions for a sustainable future. Deltares is involved in many of these initiatives and projects. In that sense, the future has already begun. The visions of the future outlined here can inspire and guide the dialogue.
