Low flow rate of the Rhine and consequences for shipping
The flow of the Rhine is currently at an all-time low of around 540 m³/s, and this is not expected to change significantly over the next two weeks. This has significant consequences for waterborne transport, the natural environment and, due to salinisation, also for groundwater and agriculture. In this article, we will focus on the consequences for waterborne transport.
Low water flow and disruption
The year 2018 is still fresh in the memory of many inland waterway operators. In 2018, when conditions were also exceptionally dry from mid-July onwards, the low-water period lasted considerably longer than during the other drought period in 2022.
In 2018, the lowest flow rate at Lobith was 732 m³/s. The lower water flow in 2026 is causing considerable disruption to shipping. With a navigable depth of 1.25 m (the minimum depth measured on Tuesday between Spijk and the Maas-Waal Canal), vessels can carry very little cargo or, in some cases, cannot sail at all.
For the first time, a decision has been taken to introduce one-way traffic on the IJssel, between Arnhem and Zutphen. This will ensure that the narrow and winding channel can still be used safely. This has consequences for businesses that depend on the supply, removal or transit of goods.
Lowest recorded summer discharge
The lowest recorded summer discharge (7-day average) shows a downward trend over the past 46 years. This is due not only to climate change but also to changes in the catchment area, such as in land and water use. All climate scenarios indicate that conditions are becoming drier.
The rate of change observed is consistent with the dry scenarios involving rapid climate change. This means we must anticipate a further decline in summer discharge and an ever-increasing likelihood of extremes such as those seen this year.
Lowest recorded summer discharge over the past 46 years – source: Deltares
Consequences for industry
This has major consequences for industry along the Twente Canal, for example. A vessel wishing to travel from Germany to the Twente Canal must sail via the Waal, the Amsterdam-Rhine Canal and the IJsselmeer. This is a detour of approximately 200 kilometres.
The reduction in freight volumes drives up costs, and alternative transport is not always available or takes longer. Using rail or road also places additional strain on infrastructure that is often already heavily burdened.
Reliability of waterways under pressure
It also means that the reliability of waterways comes under further pressure. Our ambition as the Netherlands is to shift more freight to waterways in order to achieve our EU sustainability targets. However, if such transport is not possible for an extended period, shippers will switch to other modes of transport.
Statistics Netherlands (CBS) has already calculated that freight transport by inland waterway, expressed in tonnes of cargo carried, was almost 19 per cent lower in August than in the previous year. The number of journeys made in order to continue transporting as much as possible increased. The weight of freight transported to and from Germany also decreased.
Balancing safety, drinking water, agriculture and shipping
As low river flows allow salt water to penetrate further inland, lock restrictions have also been imposed in our country. This is done to retain sufficient fresh water for purposes such as drinking water extraction, industry and agriculture. The locks along shipping routes then remain closed for longer, resulting in delays.
The Twente Canal was even closed completely, as the safety of quays and dykes was at risk. On the River Meuse, there is less lockage because there is insufficient water flow for the locking process.
Such measures are taken following careful consideration and consultation, with factors such as the time of year (irrigation season) also being taken into account. For inland waterway transport, and for industries that depend on transport by water, the financial damage can be enormous.
For instance, the Twente Board estimated that the closure of the Twente Canal could cost businesses in the region tonnes per day.
Taking low river flows into account
Transport by water must remain a reliable option, as the road network cannot accommodate the flow of goods and the societal costs of this would be higher. We will therefore need to adapt quickly.
