Consequences of climate risks for public safety
The Netherlands must be better prepared for multiple climate crises. New research by Deltares, TNO and the Netherlands Institute for Public Safety (NIPV), commissioned by the Climate Safety programme, shows that crisis management can become gridlocked when heat, drought, water shortages and wildfires occur simultaneously.
The researchers indicate that only an integrated approach, both in preparation and in the actual response, can prevent the convergence of threats from leading to major social disruption.
The climate is changing rapidly. Extreme heat, prolonged drought and other weather extremes are not only becoming more frequent, but also more intense. As a result, disruptions caused by such conditions are increasing. When different climate threats coincide, their effects reinforce each other. For example, drought can lead to an increase in wildfires, pressure on drinking water supplies and damage to infrastructure. In addition, the researchers point to so-called cascading effects: problems that spread rapidly from one sector to others. Think of power or telecom outages, mobility gridlock or extra pressure on healthcare. Such effects can affect multiple regions at the same time and severely limit the ability to act quickly.
Climate threats are more complex than traditional crises
Deltares researcher and project leader Margreet van Marle: "Climate threats differ from other threats in that they often cover a large area, are long-lasting and difficult to predict. Failures in vital infrastructure, such as energy or telecommunications, have a direct impact on other sectors and can quickly lead to major societal consequences. That is why it is essential to develop strategies that also work in the event of prolonged, unpredictable and simultaneous events."
The researchers looked at a scenario in which various cascading effects occur simultaneously. In the exercise, a single wildfire led to a series of disruptions: power failed in a small area, causing telecommunications to fail after two hours. At the same time, this resulted in a power failure at a large healthcare institution in the scenario. During the simulation, the crisis partners had to determine how, based on their own roles and responsibilities, they could make the right choices to prioritise and address these problems.
The insights from the study “Climate threats, associated cascade effects and consequences for crisis response” show that crisis management must shift from an approach based on individual incidents to an integrated approach to simultaneous crises. This requires better preparation for the concurrence of events, scarcity and interdependencies.
It is essential to develop strategies that also work in the event of prolonged, unpredictable and simultaneous events.
Margeet van Marle, researcher / project leader Deltares
Earlier and more intensive cooperation
NIPV researcher and co-author Edith Leentvaar: ‘We know that there are cascading effects, we know that we need to work together, and yet we still see that we are tackling crises in the Netherlands in a fragmented way. The challenge for crisis management is that we need to adopt a much more integrated approach in both our preparation and our response.’
An important conclusion from the research is that safety regions and relevant organisations need to collaborate earlier and more intensively, starting in the preparation phase. By jointly developing scenarios, practising with multiple simultaneous incidents and thinking in advance about choices in the event of scarcity, organisations can be prevented from acting primarily on the basis of their own processes during a crisis. In addition, more supra-regional coordination is necessary, because the effects of climate-related incidents are rarely limited to a single region. This requires not only joint decision-making, but also clear agreements in advance about joint communication.
The study emphasises that organisations (policy makers, crisis organisations, network operators, knowledge institutes) can already take important steps by explicitly identifying risks and interdependencies, practising complex scenarios together and thus developing courses of action for prolonged or unpredictable crises. In addition, the researchers recommend developing courses of action that are better suited to uncertainty, long-term crises and situations in which information is limited or unclear. They also call for more attention to be paid to socially vulnerable groups, as they are at extra risk during extreme weather situations.
Part of the Climate Safety programme
This research was conducted by Deltares, TNO and the NIPV on behalf of the Climate Safety programme. This programme focuses on increasing knowledge, improving cooperation and professionalising climate safety within the safety regions.
