Probabilistic Toolkit (PTK)
The Probabilistic Toolkit analyzes the effects of uncertainty to any model. These models range from python scripts to geotechnical en hydrodynamical Deltares applications and non-Deltares applications.
When the user has added uncertainty to a deterministic model in the Probabilistic Toolkit, he can perform the following analyses:
- Sensitivity: Investigate the effect of uncertainty per input parameter
- Model uncertainty: See how model results chage due to uncertain input parameters
- Calibration: Derive input parameters with uncertainty from measurements of output values
- Reliability: Compute the probability of undesired events
Using the Probabilistic Toolkit, the user can:
- Asses existing geotechnical and hydrodynamical constructions
- Design new geotechnical and hydrodynamical constructions
- Perform risk-based asset management
- Each numeric value in an input file can be used as an uncertain parameter
- Uncertainty of parameters can be fitted to measurements
- A chain of calculations can be established by connecting scripts and applications
- Calculation times can be reduced by response surfaces
- Probabilities of failure can be combined
- Conditional probability of failure is supported
- Intermediate results give the user insight how analyses are performed
Please find below the projects where this software was involved.
ROBAMCI: a system-oriented and risk-based method for managing water infrastructure
2016 - 2020
Rijkswaterstaat, water authorities and municipal authorities invest about 16 billion euros annually in the construction, management and maintenance of infrastructure such as roads, dikes, waterways, sewers, cables, pipelines and other engineering structures (Den Heijer, 2020). Approximately 6 billion of that amount...