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Residual uncertainty estimation using instance-based learning with applications to hydrologic forecasting
A non-parametric method is applied to quantify residual uncertainty in hydrologic streamflow forecasting. This method acts as a post-processor on deterministic model forecasts and generates a residual uncertainty distribution. Based on instance-based learning, it uses a k nearest-neighbour search for similar historical hydrometeorological conditions to determine uncertainty intervals from a set of historical errors, i.e. discrepancies between past forecast and observation. The performance of this method is assessed using test cases of hydrologic forecasting in two UK rivers: the Severn and Brue. Forecasts in retrospect were made and their uncertainties were estimated using kNN resampling and two alternative uncertainty estimators: quantile regression (QR) and uncertainty estimation based on local errors and clustering (UNEEC). Results show that kNN uncertainty estimation produces accurate and narrow uncertainty intervals with good probability coverage. Analysis also shows that the performance of this technique depends on the choice of search space. Nevertheless, the accuracy and reliability of uncertainty intervals generated using kNN resampling are at least comparable to those produced by QR and UNEEC. It is concluded that kNN uncertainty estimation is an interesting alternative to other post-processors, like QR and UNEEC, for estimating forecast uncertainty. Apart from its concept being simple and well understood, an advantage of this method is that it is relatively easy to implement.
Holistic management of brownfield regeneration (HOMBRE) : successful brownfield regeneration
This deliverable reports on what is needed for successful brownfield regeneration. It presents the strategy for change as developed in HOMBRE, and provides a basic overview of how the HOMBRE concepts, products and results help boost drivers and incentives and contribute to sustainable brownfield regeneration.
Dynamic behaviour of hydraulic structures, part A : structures in flowing field
Providing support in relation to the implementation of the EU Soil Thematic Strategy : Drivers and transboundary impacts of soil degradation
This report presents evidence of the societal challenges of transboundary impacts, the drivers, and consequences of soil degradation, as well as data and knowledge gaps. The message conveyed by the report is that there is clear evidence of transboundary impacts and drivers of soil degradation and that it has physical, ecological, economic and social causes. Soil degradation does not stop at borders.
Initial assessment : implementation of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive for the Dutch part of the North Sea (background document 1 of 3)
Development and test of usability of an operational crop growth system for farmers : TKI Farmers'App (final report)
The goal of this project was to demonstrate the possibility to develop a real-time forecasting system for crop production, enabling water boards, farmers and the insurance broker to improve their services and possibly reduce costs. The setup of both the Aa & Maas and Vechtstromen models within the “Grow with the Flow” operational system shows promising initial results. The value of the system was demonstrated by comparing model results with measurements in the field during the growing season. We successfully finalized the system and demonstrated the possibilities of application for a wet (2016), ‘normal’ (2017), and dry (2018) season.
Large-scale physical modelling of wave damping of brushwood mattresses
To determine the wave damping characteristics of floating brushwood mattresses, large scale physical modelling in the Deltares Delta flume was performed.
The development of a GIS tool to assess the changes in the riverine landscape for the ecological quality of the river Rhine in the Netherlands
Some ecological consequences of a projected deep reservoir in the Kabalebo river in Suriname
Surficial sediment erodibility from time-series measurements of suspended sediment concentrations : development and validation
Numerical models of fine sediment transport depend on different approaches to parameterize the erosion properties of surficial sediment strata. These properties, namely the critical shear stress for erosion and the erosion rate coefficient, are crucial for reproducing the short-term and long-term sediment dynamics of the system. Methods to parameterize these properties involve either specialized laboratory measurements on sediment samples or optimization by model calibration.