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Operational river and coastal water level forecast using Bayesian model averaging
Publication type | rapport Deltares
Quantifying the uncertainty in operational forecast models is important in decision making in water management. If several competing forecast models are available they usually provide a wide range of possible future situations. The reliable estimation of a most probable overall forecast and the quantification of its underlying uncertainties is most useful when having to meet disaster management decisions in limited time. The theory and application of the BMA method are described.