Smart investment in climate adaptation by linking the short and long term
To keep the Dutch delta liveable and safe, adjustments are needed to a changing climate. But how do we ensure that today's investments contribute to a future-proof Netherlands? Together with Rijkswaterstaat and the Delta Programme Commissioner, Deltares has developed a new method for this: DAPP-Δ, which helps policymakers understand which choices are decisive for the future.
Looking ahead, reasoning backwards and connecting
DAPP-Δ is an extension of the Dynamic Adaptive Pathway (DAPP) method. DAPP was developed over 10 years ago by Deltares and Delft University of Technology to help policymakers develop long-term strategies in a changing world. Instead of a single fixed plan, multiple pathways are explored that lead to the achievement of policy goals under different future scenarios. With the now expanded method, three steps must be taken:
- Looking ahead – Exploring possible adaptation pathways under different future scenarios. This provides insight into how measures develop over time and under uncertainty.
- Backtracking – Based on existing visions of the future, determining which steps are needed to get there. This helps to clarify which intermediate steps and building blocks are needed to realise the vision of the future.
- Connecting – By combining both perspectives, it becomes clear which pivotal decisions need to be taken today in order to keep future options open. This prevents disinvestment and makes it possible to exploit opportunities for synergy.
The new method has been applied to a complex issue in the south-west of the Netherlands: what investments are expected in the coming decades and how do they relate to long-term climate adaptation? The south-western region faces major decisions, such as the future of the Volkerak locks, the functioning of the Maeslant storm surge barrier and the design of the water system in relation to sea level rise and salinisation.
The analysis using existing scenarios shows that these choices are closely interrelated. For example, a decision on whether to keep the Volkerak locks open or closed may have consequences for the set of choices that are then available, for example for protecting Rotterdam as sea levels rise. By making this interconnection explicit, DAPP-Δ helps to identify strategic choices that maintain flexibility in the future and contribute to an adaptive design of the region.
Linking forward-looking adaptation paths and backward-looking paths from future scenarios provides insight into decisive decisions. It thus provides insight into which choices open up or close off certain future scenarios. It also provides insight into the connection between future scenarios and decision points in the shorter term.
Tailor-made workshop
Deltares developed the new, comprehensive method in collaboration with Rijkswaterstaat and the Delta Programme Commissioner, as part of the Rijkswaterstaat Corporate Innovation Programme (CIP). In order to apply it, a workshop format was also developed, enabling experts from various fields to familiarise themselves with the method. During the workshop, participants contribute information and insights from their own areas of expertise, such as lock maintenance or long-term strategic policy decisions.
Over the past year, the workshop has been conducted with Rijkswaterstaat, the Delta Programme, TU Delft, Rotterdam University of Applied Sciences and various regional authorities, among others. The workshops have led to new insights. For example, the vision of the future that was considered most desirable at the start of the workshop turned out to be in conflict with the most obvious decisions for short-term bottlenecks. In addition, it helped to understand each other's perspectives and to engage in dialogue with each other.
For us as asset managers, this method helps us to better link investment choices to long-term developments and to discuss them with the Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management. In this way, we prevent today's choices from unintentionally leading to divestments in the future.
Martine Brinkhuis, Rijkswaterstaat
Today's choices determine the future
The new method helps to better view short- and long-term tasks in context and to clarify the connections between choices in certain regions. Today's choices can increase the scope for solutions, provided we look beyond current land use. At the same time, future-oriented action requires the realisation that transitions take time and that what is decided today determines what is still possible tomorrow.
It is important to avoid lock-in situations and to look for ways to keep the scope for solutions open in the future.
Saskia van Vuren, Staff Delta Commissioner
Would you like to know more about DAPP-Δ?
Read the entire publication, titled 'Identifying transformative decisions: A dual approach to adaptation pathways design using forward-exploration and backcasting', in the journal Climate Risk Management.
Would you like to apply the method to a specific region or try out the workshop format? Please contact us.
