By generating thousands of synthetic tropical cyclones tracks, much more dis- and advantageous trajectories in terms of the landfall location, heading and forward speed are included in the synthetic tracks compared to historic events. Employing a probabilistic method using TCWiSE thereby reduces uncertainty margins associated with extreme conditions for projects regarding metocean studies, breakwater design conditions as well as coastal hazards and risk due to wind damage and flooding.
Tropical cyclones are among the most destructive natural hazards worldwide causing multi-billion euros of damage all around the world. Tropical cyclones (also known as cyclones, typhoons or hurricanes) are low-pressure storm systems, have strong winds and form mainly over warm tropical seas which provide energy. Coastal regions are particularly vulnerable to the impact of tropical cyclones caused by strong winds, rain, high waves (due to winds) and storm surges (due to wind and pressure).
Traditionally, to derive design criteria for tropical cyclones, historical events of the last decades are simulated in numerical modelling software (e.g. Delft3D Flexible Mesh). However, this may not result in reliable estimates of the extremes, especially at regions characterised by a low number of past cyclonic events.
Using statistics of historical tropical cyclones
TCWiSE uses the statistics of historical tropical cyclones after which it creates thousands of synthetic tracks representative for very long time-scales. In other words, the tool can create a lot of synthetic tropical cyclones which helps to determine the probability of a particular event.
Moreover, TCWiSE can account for climate change effects for example by including changes in cyclone intensity and frequency. With more reliable estimates of wind speeds and pressure, the tool can then be used to provide estimates of storm surge and wave heights by modelling these in numerical modelling software like Delft3D FM Suite and SFINCS.
The tool has been successfully applied in studies at different oceanic basins: United States, Bangladesh, the Marshall Islands, Mozambique, Oman and Sint Maarten.
For more information see the introduction paper "Simulating Synthetic Tropical Cyclone Tracks for Statistically Reliable Wind and Pressure Estimations": Nederhoff, K., Hoek, J., Leijnse, T., van Ormondt, M., Caires, S., and Giardino, A.: Simulating Synthetic Tropical Cyclone Tracks for Statistically Reliable Wind and Pressure Estimations, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss. 2021.
Matlab requirements: tested on version 2017b and newer.
TCWiSE has been released as FreeWare and as free open source code under the GNU General Public license version 3.
After filling in your contact details you will be able to download the tool.
For the use and application of the tool, this work can be sited as:
Nederhoff, K., Hoek, J., Leijnse, T., van Ormondt, M., Caires, S., and Giardino, A.: Simulating synthetic tropical cyclone tracks for statistically reliable wind and pressure estimations, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 861–878, 2021