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Most local, human-induced drivers show measurable impacts within years, underscoring the urgent need to address them in climate adaptation and policy. The framework provides a clear basis for prioritising timely, locally grounded action with a holistic understanding of scale in time and space.

Deeper understanding

Deltas around the world, such as the Rhine, Mekong, Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna, and Nile, are threatened by climate change, facing rising sea levels and increasing frequency of extreme events. Today, approximately 500 million people live within or adjacent to delta systems.

Effective adaptation in these complex and dynamic environments requires more than isolated measures, that often overlook an important step in deeper assessment of the system as a whole. It calls for a deeper understanding of the systems that shape them.

10 drivers of change in deltas worldwide

To address this, Deltares and an international team of researchers have developed a diagnostic conceptual framework that offers a systems perspective as a first step for climate adaptation in deltas. They have identified 10 drivers of change in deltas worldwide, linked with their direct and indirect impacts across scales in time and space (divided in centuries, decades or temporal scales).

These drivers are:

  • Climate change
  • Sea level rise
  • Deforestation
  • intense agriculture
  • Urbanisation
  • Impoundments
  • Land subsidence
  • Ground water extraction
  • Flood defences
  • Resources mining
Climatic and anthropogenic drivers of change in the world’s deltas. Panel (A) provides a 3D view of the system, and panel (B) depicts a conceptual cross-section from the sea to the mountains, featuring the surface and groundwater variability along the river.

The framework is designed to help identify and understand the interconnectivities within the biophysical system, from source to sink, and how these link with local/regional/transboundary socio-economic structures. This can also help facilitate a dialogue within various stakeholders towards better system understanding and building consensus among stakeholders, and co-development of solutions.

Deltas are the most complex coastal systems in the world and recognising these multiple drivers and how they operate in each delta is fundamental to finding solutions.

Co-author Robert Nicholls (University of East Anglia/University of Southampton)

Anthropogenic drivers have immediate impact

While climate change threatens the world’s deltas, anthropogenic drivers (largely reflected in sediment starvation and resource extraction, profound land-use change, and hydrological regime shifts) can outpace climate change in the short to medium term. Nearly all local anthropogenic drivers result in measurable impacts within years or decades, emphasising the significance and relevance of local and regional drivers for effective and timely climate adaptation and policy development.

If we want to give deltas a real chance at long-term climate resilience, we need collective comprehension of the human footprint and the underlying drivers of change.

Sepehr Eslami main author and coastal expert at Deltares

Key drivers of change in river deltas divided into climate/natural and anthropogenic processes mapped in their respective spatial and temporal scales

Three years of research

The research was inspired by the work of the Rise and Fall Project, a collaboration between Deltares and the Utrecht University, and was conducted in partnership with leading institutions including the University of East Anglia, University of Southampton, University of Oxford, Wageningen University, University of Cologne, TU Delft, and the University of Padova.

Over a period of nearly three years, the team combined decades of knowledge on vulnerabilities in deltas and adaptation efforts to develop a framework that can facilitate diagnosing the key processes and interactions shaping a delta system. The goal: to offer a holistic foundation for planning effective, context-sensitive adaptation strategies.

A tool for policy and practice

This diagnostic framework is intended to support policymakers, technocrats, engineers, and stakeholders in developing locally grounded adaptation strategies that are both realistic and resilient. Initiatives such as the International Panel for Deltas and Coastal Areas (IPDC), Partners voor Water, and Invest International can apply the framework as a crucial very first step to improve early-stage understanding and adaptation planning.

“By promoting system-level thinking, this framework encourages more critical and collaborative approaches to adaptation,” adds Sepehr Eslami. “It helps identify the solutions with the highest chance of being implemented successfully, especially when embedded in a longer-term vision.”

The diagnostic framework can also foster constructive dialogue among stakeholders and ensure that adaptation efforts are both science-based and socially relevant.

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