New method helps regions prioritise climate risks
Expert(s) |
Ted Buskop
Climate change is causing increasingly frequent extreme weather events and, as a result, potential flooding. The damage is often not only local: businesses and economic chains can also be disrupted. This makes recovery after a disaster particularly difficult. At the same time, it is difficult to predict exactly how the climate and society will develop. It is therefore important for regional administrators to make smart choices: where are the risks greatest, and where can resources best be deployed?
New research by Deltares, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) offers a solution. In the scientific journal Earth's Future, the researchers present an innovative method that helps to better understand and prioritise climate risks at the regional level.
Combining possibility and certainty
The core of the method is the combination of two approaches: probabilistic analyses (probability of extreme events) and storylines (plausible future scenarios). Integrating these approaches results in a so-called plausibilistic approach, which combines possibilities and certainties. The method also makes it possible to map not only direct flood risks, but also the indirect economic consequences that can occur via sectoral chains.
The method has been successfully applied to the Lielupe river basin in Latvia and Lithuania. There, it was found that some areas and sectors remain vulnerable in almost all scenarios. Such robust insights are of great value to policymakers who need to prioritise adaptation measures.
Broad application and open data
What makes this approach special is that it uses freely available global datasets and models, while at the same time offering scope for local refinement. This allows regional policymakers and water managers to apply the method using their own data, for example on planned construction projects or local economic developments.
The researchers emphasise that climate risks depend not only on the weather, but also on how society develops. In some scenarios, the value of buildings in flood-prone areas increases by 375%, while shrinking sectors such as construction come under severe pressure from the demand for repair. If these sectors are unable to scale up, bottlenecks will arise that slow down recovery and increase social disruption.
Practical tool for adaptation
The aim of the new method is not to make exact predictions, but to help policymakers make well-informed choices. By providing insight into where risks converge, for example an increase in extreme precipitation and strong growth in vulnerable buildings, resources can be deployed in a targeted manner.
The researchers hope that this approach will contribute to a more resilient Netherlands and Europe. The method is widely applicable and can also be used for other climate risks, such as drought or heat stress.
‘With this method, we don't want to push uncertainty aside, but rather use it to act more effectively,’ says Ted Buskop (lead author and researcher at Deltares). ‘Working with plausible future scenarios and probabilistic analyses creates a powerful tool for regional decision-making. You can clearly see which areas and sectors are always vulnerable, which are potentially vulnerable, and which are not.’
