Study of extreme climate effects on critical infrastructure in Amsterdam
Expert(s) |
Margreet van Marle
|
Lieke Meijer
What happens when there is a power cut in a major city or extreme weather make roads impassable? Deltares conducted a study for the city of Amsterdam to investigate the cascade effects of the loss of critical infrastructure due to climate threats such as flooding, heat and drought. Interdependencies and possible cascade effects were identified in collaboration with providers of vital functions.
Electricity, telecommunications, accessibility and the water system
The analysis shows that vital functions are highly interdependent. Electricity, telecommunications, accessibility and the water system are particularly important links: outages in these sectors almost automatically generate cascade effects that impact other vital functions.
A key insight from the study is that accessibility is crucial during crises. This cascade effect is often not adequately considered. For example, flooding can impact accessibility because of submerged streets and tunnels. This can significantly increase the response times of the ambulance service, the police and the fire brigade. Reduced accessibility also makes it more difficult to tackle malfunctions in critical infrastructure such as the power grid or water pumps.
Cascade effects and feedback loops
The study shows that cascade effects in vital functions can lead to feedback loops: situations in which problems exacerbate each other. For instance: flooding can lead to power cuts, causing pumps and pumping stations to fail. If they can no longer be operated or repaired manually because of submerged roads, flooding will get worse. This can lead to even more outages and reduced accessibility, making problems increasingly difficult to manage.
CIrcle, a tool from Deltares that translates expert knowledge into a visual overview of dependencies, was used to map cascade effects. During a CIrcle workshop, providers of vital functions contribute their knowledge, allowing for the identification of interdependencies and potential cascade effects.
The interconnectedness of vital functions shows how ingenious the system is but it also exposes vulnerabilities. In this study, we provide an initial insight into this complexity and its relationship with natural threats.
Lieke Meijer, expert on extreme weather impacts at Deltares
Heat and drought
Deltares also looked at heat and drought as climate threats that could affect critical infrastructure. For example, drought can lead to subsidence, damage to roads, pipelines and buildings, and impair the availability of fresh or cooling water of sufficient quality.
To protect ourselves better against the impacts of climate change, it is essential to know where critical infrastructure failures can disrupt society.
Margreet van Marle, climate change expert at Deltares
Extreme heat can disrupt vital functions as a result of overheating, the expansion of infrastructure or a shortage of cooling water. In addition, emergency services may encounter problems with capacity and availability during heat waves.
Scenarios and risk matrix as the next stage
To tackle climate threats effectively, Deltares recommends assessing the results in different scenarios in consultation with the partners in the individual areas. This makes it possible to determine risks and identify vulnerable locations. Scenarios for problems with excessive water and flooding are a logical first step here. In addition, Deltares advises the Amsterdam city authority to determine whether risks are acceptable. That will help to prioritize adaptation plans.
The study results will help us to continue working on climate adaptation policies. The next step is to study the risks and decide which are most important. The results will also be taken into consideration in the work on Amsterdam’s vital systems.
Joris Solleveld, project leader and regional climate adaptation coordinator for the City of Amsterdam
Extreme weather and the resilience of critical entities
The results of this new study are also relevant in the context of the Dutch Critical Entities Resilience Act (Wwke) because they provide a qualitative insight into what can go wrong when vital functions fail due to a climate-related cause. The Wwke is the Dutch act implementing the European Critical Entities Resilience (CER) directive, which aims to increase the resilience of organisations providing essential services. The act focuses on protection against physical threats, including natural threats from extreme weather and climate change.
This study was completed in part thanks to contributions from: Amsterdam Amstelland Safety Region, GGD-GHOR, GVB Amsterdam, ProRail, City of Amsterdam, Liander, TenneT, KPN and Waternet (drinking water, wastewater & sewage, defence & management).
