Implications of the KNMI’14 climate scenarios for the discharge of the Rhine and Meuse : comparison with earlier scenario studies

In this assessment we investigate potential changes in discharge for the rivers Meuse and Rhine due to climate change using: 1. The KNMI’14 scenarios for the Rhine and Meuse basins ; 2. A selection of 183 simulations from the recently developed Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) datasets, that are based on the IPCC representative concentration pathways of the 5th IPCC assessment report. The results show that the implications of the KNMI’14 scenarios on the Rhine and Meuse are a general tendency towards increasing discharges in winter and spring and decreasing discharges in (late) summer. For both rivers the mean winter and mean annual maximum discharge are projected to increase whereas the mean summer and mean annual minimum 7-day discharge are projected to decrease. According to most scenarios, mean annual discharge shows a clear increase as well.