Probabilistic model Wadden Sea : three alternatives for HBC 2011 and test results

The aim of this document is to describe three different approaches and test results for calculating the Hydraulic Boundary Conditions in the Wadden Sea area. The approaches that are described differ in terms of probabilistic method as well as driving mechanism of the wave model and circulation model. The first method is the most basic implementation, using the present setup of Hydra-K and input for SWAN calculations. A second approach uses the present Hydra-K set-up, but the hydrodynamics of the SWAN input are generated with WAQUA simulations of model storms. Finally, a third method is described in which the meteorological variables form the basis of the probabilistic model. Development of this approach requires a redesign of Hydra-K.