Socio-economic scenarios for the Meuse basin and their impact on river discharge
Auteur(s) |
F.E. Schasfoort
|
F. Monji
|
M.J.P. Mens
|
M. Wadman
Publicatie type | Rapport Deltares
The Meuse River is a very important water resource for nature and society in the riparian countries. During drought episodes the river discharges may become very low. This may impact water users in the entire basin: drinking water production, electricity supply, ecosystems, industry and agriculture. To prepare for droughts, more insight is needed into the impact of climate change in combination with the impact of socio-economic developments in the Meuse basin on the low discharge of the Meuse.
This study explores the impact of the coupled socio-economic and climate change scenarios on the discharge at Monsin (where the Meuse flows from Belgium to the Netherlands) and at Chooz (where the Meuse flows from France to Belgium). This information can subsequently be used to explore the impact on water shortages in the Netherlands.
The two scenarios have been implemented in the Ribasim model of the Meuse to assess the impact on the Meuse discharges. This provides a first indication about the future possible bandwidth of discharges. In comparison with the reference situation both scenarios show a large increase in the average number of low flow days at Monsin and Chooz. The number of days under 50 m3/s discharge at Monsin increases with 82% (62 days per year on average) in the Towards Sustainability scenario and 120% (75 days per year) in the National Security scenario.