Ferdinand Diermanse
Ferdinand Diermanse is a senior specialist with an M. Sc. in applied mathematics and a Ph. D. in hydrology, both from Delft University of Technology. He is an expert in the field of flood risk analysis and management with over 20 years of work experience. His key qualifications are: probabilistic modeling, statistics, hydrology and integrated risk assessment. He has carried out numerous hydrological and risk assessments for a variety of inland and coastal water systems and published various papers on these topics. Mr. Diermanse has substantial teaching experience and is capable of explaining complex topics to audiences with diverse backgrounds.
Mr Diermanse has participated in several challenging international projects. Countries of work experience include Albania, Australia, Bangladesh, Brazil, Canada, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Egypt, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Islamic Republic of Iran, Ireland, Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Liberia, Sao Tome and Principe, South Sudan, Sri Lanka, Tanzania, United States and Viet Nam.
Recently, he participated in an independent panel of experts for a review of a feasibility study of a 1700 km inland rail from Melbourne to Brisbane. Previously, he led a consortium for a multi-hazard risk analysis for the whole country of Afghanistan, for hazards like floods, droughts, avalanches, landslides and earthquakes. In 2010, he carried out a water resources assessment for South Sudan and advised the Government of South Sudan on this topic in the negotiations with Sudan in the process of forming the new independent country of South Sudan.
Working experience
| 2008 - present | Deltares | Senior specialist advisor/researcher |
| 2000 - 2008 | Delft Hydraulics/Deltares | (senior) researcher/consultant |
| 2000 - 2008 | Delft Hydraulics/Deltares | Researcher / Advisor. |
| 1996 - 2000 | Delft University of Technology | PhD student at Delft University of Technology, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Department Hydrology & Ecology. |
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Independent International Panel of Experts for Flood Studies of Inland Rail in Queensland
Australia, 2020 - 2021
Client: Department of Transport and Main Roads of the State of Queensland
Main project features: The independent panel of experts provided professional expertise and advice on scientific and technical matters related to best practice flood modeling and design of waterway structures in relation to the Inland Rail in a floodplain environment in Queensland
Positions held: panel member
Activities performed: Review of technical reports and hydrological/hydraulic models of all rivers and streams crossing the projected railway line in Queensland
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Flood risk assessment and scenarios dashboards for Dar es Salaam and Zanzibar City
Tanzania, 2020 - 2020
Client: World Bank
Development of a robust and science-based understanding of flood risk and providing evaluation and communication tools that facilitate the incorporation of risk information for decision making.
Positions held: Flood Risk Specialist
Activities performed: Validation of rainfall data, derivation of rainfall statistics (IDF curves, areal reduction factors, spatial correlation). Development of a stochastic rainfall model to generate a realistic and representative set of synthetic rainfall data, accounting for spatial and temporal correlations.
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Developing Concept Design Solutions for Coastal Erosion in Bangladesh
Bangladesh, 2019 - 2021
Main project features: Assessment of coastal erosion problems; Identification of suitable mitigation measures and conceptual designs; Upscaling of lessons learned and dissemination
Positions held: Climate impact assessment specialist
Activities performed: Assessment of trends in historic records of rainfall, river discharge and temperature in Bangladesh; Assessment of projected climate change impacts on rainfall and temperature in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna basin
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Parish-wide watershed planning and strategic analysis
United States, 2019 - 2021
Client: Calcasieu Parish Police Jury
Main project features: Development of master watershed plan for the 10 watersheds of Calcasieu Parish. Work included detailed hydrodynamic modelling, damage and vulnerability assessment, qualitative adaptation pathways development with stakeholder engagement, an analysis to determine the cascading effects of critical infrastructure, and detailed modelling in support of a fully quantitative adaptation pathways analysis. The outcome consisted of an integrated actionable plan for adaptation under various future climate and socio-economic scenarios.
Positions held: Risk expert
Activities performed: Development of a probabilistic flood hazard modelling framework for the Lake Charles Watershed
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Calgary flood risk
Canada, 2018 - 2019
Client: Alberta Ministry of Environment and Parks
Main project features: The Canadian city of Calgary experienced a severe flood event in 2013. As a follow-up, the city has made a proposal for flood mitigating measures, including upstream reservoirs and new/increased barriers in the city. The Alberta Ministry of Environment and Parks asked Deltares to carry out an independent review of the proposed plans.
Positions held: Flood Risk Management Expert
Activities performed: Review of underlying technical reports (hydrology, hydraulics, morphology, selection process of mitigation strategies), field visits, meetings with representatives of the city and ministry, reporting and presentation of our assessment
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Impact of high sea level rise on the long term flood and drought risk strategies for The Netherlands
Netherlands, 2018 - 2018
Client: Staff Delta program
Main project features: Assessment of the long-term flood and drought risk strategies for The Netherlands and the potential impact of an accelerated sea level rise as recently projected in a nature paper. The study looked at the limits of the current strategy under sea level rise.
Positions held: Flood risk expert, co-editor
Activities performed: Main contributor to the flood risk component, co-editor of the report.
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Afghanistan – Multi-hazard risk assessment, cost-benefit analysis, and resilient design recommendations
Afghanistan, 2015 - 2016
Client: World Bank
Main project features: [1] To develop new information on current and future risks from seismic, fluvial flood, flash flood, drought, landslide, snow avalanches and seismic hazards in the country of Afghanistan. [2] To propose resilient reconstruction and risk reduction options. [3] To provide written guidance to World Bank sector staff working on disaster resilient reconstruction efforts in Afghanistan.
Positions held: Project leader of the consortium, Flood expert
Activities performed: Team leader of the consortium (with institutes from Germany, Switzerland, Italy and Afghanistan). Statistical analysis of precipitation and discharge, generation of synthetic flood events.
Main project features: The goal of the study is to produce a set of competing methods for estimating design floods in the Brisbane River catchment, followed by an extensive reconciliation process to identify the most reliable design flood estimates for various locations and a wide range of annual exceedance probabilities
Positions held: Deltares project leader, component leader Monte Carlo framework
Activities performed: Design, implementation and testing of the Monte Carlo framework. Reconciliation of design flows.
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WTI-2017 – safety assessment for primary flood defences
Netherlands, 2013 - 2015
Client: Ministry of Transport and Water Management
Main project features: In this project, safety formats are developed for the new tool for the safety assessment of primary flood defences in the Netherlands, taking into account all relevant uncertainties. The work includes the development of probabilistic and semi-probabilistic models for the main potential failure mechanisms of flood defences
Positions held: Project leader
Activities performed: Project management, quality control, main author of the scientific documentation
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Brisbane River Catchment Flood Study
Australia, 2013 - 2015
Client: (Queensland) Department of Natural Resources and Mines
Main project features: The goal of the study was to produce a set of competing methods for estimating design floods in the Brisbane River catchment, followed by an extensive reconciliation process to identify the most reliable design flood estimates for various locations and a wide range of annual exceedance probabilities
Positions held: Deltares project leader, component leader Monte Carlo framework
Activities performed: Design, implementation and testing of the Monte Carlo framework. Reconciliation of design flows.
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Southern Sudan water resources studies
South Sudan, 2010 - 2010
Main project features: Technical advisor for the Government of Southern Sudan (GOSS) with regard to their preparation for the referendum for independence and associated negotiations with Northern Sudan.
Positions held: Project leader and technical advisor
Activities performed: Analysis of current and future water resources and water demands in Southern Sudan.
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The Netherlands, 2012
Project leader for the implementation of Hydra-Ring, the new tool for the safety assessment of primary flood defences in the Netherlands.
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Vietnam, 2011
Ho Chi Min City Flood Studies: Hydrological modelling, statistical and probabilistic flood risk analysis.
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Sudan, 2010
Analysis of current and future water resources and water demands in Southern-Sudan, for preparation of the referendum for independence and associated negotiations with Northern Sudan.
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Cambodia, 2008-2009
Flood risk analysis for a number of sub basins in the Mekong river basin; assessment of flood mitigation measures; development of guidelines for Flood Risk Assessment. Training in flood risk analysis for representatives of Cambodia, Thailand, Vietnam and Laos.
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China/Hong Kong, 2008
Statistical features of design methods in the storm drainage manual of the Drainage Service Department of Hong Kong: review on existing techniques, design and application of improved techniques.
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The Netherlands, 2008
Project leader for the 5-yearly project for the design and testing of flood protection works along the main fresh water systems (rivers and lakes) in the Netherlands.
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Indonesia, 2007
Jakarta Flood Management (JFM)” project. 1. Frequency analysis of floods caused by combinations of local rainfall, upstream river flow and high sea water levels in and around Jakarta. 2. rainfall runoff modelling.
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Vietnam, 2005
Second Red River Basin Sector Project. 1. Flood risk analysis and assessment of mitigation measures for the Bac Hung Hai Polder. 2. Analysis and improvement of the existing flow forecasting system for the Red river.
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Egypt, 2004-2005
Lake Nasser Flood and Drought Control / Integration of Climate Change Uncertainty and Flooding project. The activities consisted of data validation, hydrological modelling and re-calibration of the Nile Forecasting System.
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Iran, 2001
Lake Nasser Flood and Drought Control / Integration of Climate Change Uncertainty and Flooding project. The activities consisted of data validation, hydrological modelling and re-calibration of the Nile Forecasting System.
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Adaptation to uncertain sea-level rise; how uncertainty in Antarctic mass-loss impacts the coastal adaptation strategy of the Netherlands, Environmental Research Letters
M Haasnoot, J Kwadijk, J van Alphen, D Le Bars, B van den Hurk F Diermanse, A van der Spek, G Oude Essink, J Delsman and M Mens, 2020: Adaptation to uncertain sea-level rise; how uncertainty in Antarctic mass-loss impacts the coastal adaptation strategy of the Netherlands, Environmental Research Letters
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Effect of surge uncertainty on probabilistically computed dune erosion, Coastal Engineering 58 (2011) 1023–1033
Roscoe, K.L. and Diermanse, F.
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Reliability-based partial factors for flood defences, Reliability Engineering and System Safety
Jongejan, R., Diermanse, F., Kanning, W., Bottema M., 2019: Reliability-based partial factors for flood defenses, Reliability Engineering and System Safety (RESS) 193
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Stochastic generation of spatially coherent river discharge peaks for continental event-based flood risk assessment
Diederen, D., Liu, Y., Gouldby, B., Diermanse, F., and Vorogushyn, S, 2019. Stochastic generation of spatially coherent river discharge peaks for continental event-based flood risk assessment, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst.
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Economically optimal safety targets for interdependent flood defences in a graph-based approach with an efficient evaluation of expected annual damage estimates
Dupuits, E.J.C., Diermanse, F.L.M. and Kok, M., 2017. Economically optimal safety targets for interdependent flood defences in a graph-based approach with an efficient evaluation of expected annual damage estimates, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17
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Correlation models in flood risk analysis, accepted for publication in: Reliability Engineering and System Safety
Diermanse, F.L.M. and Geerse, C.P.M., 2010:
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An efficient sampling method for fast and accurate Monte Carlo Simulations
Diermanse, F.L.M, D. G. Carroll, J. V. L. Beckers & R. Ayre, 2017. An efficient sampling method for fast and accurate Monte Carlo Simulations, Australasian Journal of Water Resources
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The co-incidence of storm surges and extreme discharges within the Rhine–Meuse Delta
Klerk, WJ, HC Winsemius, WJ van Verseveld, AMR Bakker and FLM Diermanse, 2015. The co-incidence of storm surges and extreme discharges within the Rhine–Meuse Delta, Environ. Res. Lett. 10
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System reliability with correlated components: Accuracy of the Equivalent Planes method
Kathryn Roscoe, Ferdinand Diermanse, Ton Vrouwenvelder, 2015: System reliability with correlated components: Accuracy of the Equivalent Planes method, Structural Safety 57 (2015)
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Importance sampling for efficient modelling of hydraulic loads in the Rhine–Meuse delta
Diermanse, F.L.M., De Bruijn, K.M. and Beckers, J., 2014: Importance sampling for efficient modelling of hydraulic loads in the Rhine–Meuse delta, Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment March 2015, Volume 29, Issue 3, 637-652.
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An advanced method for flood risk analysis in river deltas, applied to societal flood fatality risks in the Netherlands
De Bruijn, K.M., Diermanse, F.L.M., Beckers, J.V.L., 2014. An advanced method for flood risk analysis in river deltas, applied to societal flood fatality risks in the Netherlands, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2014 2767–2781
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A, 2014. Monte Carlo Framework for the Brisbane River Catchment Flood Study
Diermanse, F.L.M., D.G. Carroll, J.V.L. Beckers, R. Ayre, J.M. Schuurmans, A, 2014. Monte Carlo Framework for the Brisbane River Catchment Flood Study, Proceedings of the HWRS conference in Perth, Australia
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Probabilistic flood hazard maps for Jakarta derived from a stochastic rain-storm generator
Nuswantoro, R., Diermanse, F. and Molkenthin, F., 2014: Probabilistic flood hazard maps for Jakarta derived from a stochastic rain-storm generator, Journal of Flood Risk Management, 2014
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Extreme offshore wave statistics in the North Sea. WIT Transactions on Ecology and the Environment
Roscoe, K., S. Caires, F. Diermanse, J. Groeneweg. Extreme offshore wave statistics in the North Sea. WIT Transactions on Ecology and the Environment, 133, pp. 47-58.
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Statistical trend analysis of annual maximum discharges of the Rhine and Meuse rivers
Diermanse, F.L.M. Kwadijk, J.C.J., Beckers, J.V.L. and Crebas, J.I
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Modelling statistical dependence using copulas
Diermanse, F.L.M. and Van der Klis, H., 2005: Modelling statistical dependence using copulas; contribution of the International Symposium on Stochastic Hydraulics (ISSH), Nijmegen, the Netherlands, In: Proceedings of the International Symposium on Stochastic Hydraulics, IAHR, Paseo Bajo Virgen del Puerto 3, 28005 Madrid, Spain, First published 2005 ISBN: 90-805649-9-0, Editors: Vrijling JK et al..
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Uncertainty in flood quantiles from basin and river models
Diermanse, F. and Ogink, H., 2005: Uncertainty in flood quantiles from basin and river models, proceedings of the Workshop and Expert Meeting on Extreme Discharges, 18 and 19 April in Bregenz, Austria.
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Application of various techniques to determine exceedence probabilities of water levels of the IJssel Lake
Diermanse, F.L.M., Prinsen, G.F., van den Boogaard, H.F.P., Den Heijer, F. & Geerse, C.P.M., 2003: Application of various techniques to determine exceedence probabilities of water levels of the IJssel Lake, in: Safety & Reliability, T. Bedford & P.H.A.J.M. van Gelder (eds.),proceedings of ESREL 2003, European safety and reliability conference June 15-18 June 2003, Maastricht, the Netherlands, Balkema Publishers, Lisse.
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Physically based modelling of rainfall-runoff processes
Diermanse, F.L.M.: Physically based modelling of rainfall-runoff processes, Ph. D. thesis, Delft University Press.
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Representation of natural heterogeneity in rainfall-runoff models
Diermanse, F. L. M: Representation of natural heterogeneity in rainfall-runoff models, Phys. Chem., Earth, 24(7), 787-792.
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Modelling process controls on floods
Diermanse, F.L.M. and Rientjes, T.H.M: Modelling process controls on floods, In: R. Casale, G.B. Pedroli and P. Samuels, Ribamod; River basin modelling, management and flood mitigation, concerted action, Office for official publications of the European communities,